Fantasy related but good info....
Sneaky Samardo Samuels
The unknown is almost always more exciting than the recycled. If Shawn Marion was suddenly the starting power forward for the Cavs, no one would give it much thought. But since Samardo Samuels is such a mystery, it's riveting. I mean, the big clumps of hair on my neck/upper back are tingling as we speak.
So who is Samardo Samuels? The Jamaican-born wide body was among the best high school players in the country in 2008. He was solid, but not spectacular, for two seasons at Louisville. Then he inexplicably went undrafted on draft day last April. Now, he is one of the hottest adds in fantasy basketball.
Coaches are constantly tinkering, toying and yanking around with rotations. Sometimes it has to do with injuries, like in Samuels' case. In other instances, it's a result of ineffective play from a certain player. The effect this has on minutes played and thus statistical production is where we come in.
Each week in this space, I'll explore the rotations of half the league's teams while attempting to get inside coaches' heads. The idea is not to tell you what Kevin Durant and LeBron James are going to do --- it's to decipher how much production we can get out of fringe players. Last week, I hit rotations impacted by the trade deadline. This week, we explore the East and start in Cleveland:
* Note that the lineups listed reflect the starters in the team's previous game. Stats are through Monday's games.
<BIG>CLEVELAND</BIG>
PG Ramon Sessions
SG Anthony Parker
SF Alonzo Gee
PF Samardo Samuels
C J.J. Hickson
The first major story here is Samardo Samuels, who will start at power forward for the rest of the year in place of Antawn Jamison (finger). Considering he is a raw undrafted free agent, Samuels' first three starts can be viewed as nothing short of a major success: 16.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.0 blocks, 52.8 percent from field.
Those rebound and block numbers are sustainable thanks to the 30-32 minutes Samuels will play nightly. I am skeptical about the points as teams get a scouting report on him, but a regression there is not my biggest concern. Free-throw shooting is. Samuels has taken 22 free throws in these three starts, and made just 11.
For a player that plays down low and goes to the line so often, that Shaq-like rate can kill a fantasy team. There is some hope as Samuels shot 66.7 percent from the line as a freshman at Louisville and 70.6 as a sophomore. Bottom line: He is worth an add in most formats if you can handle the free-throw shooting. With starter's minutes on a team devoid of talent, Samuels will produce. Think of him as an extremely poor man's Paul Millsap.
The other big story out of Cleveland is the arrival of Baron Davis. Coach Byron Scott is already on the record saying Davis will eventually start over Ramon Sessions, but that it won't happen tonight. For now, there is still value in owning both as they both figure to play around 30 minutes. Eventually, Davis will become the preferred play by a significant margin.
<BIG>ATLANTA</BIG>
PG Kirk Hinrich
SG Joe Johnson
SF Marvin Williams
PF Josh Smith
C Al Horford
Kirk Hinrich is a great fit in Atlanta. He is an excellent 3-point shooter just like Mike Bibby, but can actually play defense. Hinrich will play 32-35 minutes a night the rest of the way as a very nice fantasy option. For his career, Hinrich makes 1.6 treys and gets 1.3 steals per 36 minutes. Buy up.
Marvin Williams is back in the starting five and doing his mediocre thing. Anyone expecting a breakout is not watching close enough -- his averages of 10.6 points and 5.1 boards while playing 31 minutes a night in 39 starts this season is what it is.
Jamal Crawford just can't seem to find that trademark tear that he almost always goes on. I still think it will come at some point. Crawford's minutes have been consistent, but he is shooting 38.2 percent from the field over his last 10 games. He'll balance that out with a 45 percent 10 game stretch at some point and be well worth starting.
<BIG>BOSTON</BIG>
PG Rajon Rondo
SG Ray Allen
SF Paul Pierce
PF Kevin Garnett
C Nenad Krstic
Even with Shaquille O'Neal, Jermaine O'Neal, Glen Davis and Delonte West all sidelined, Jeff Green and Troy Murphy are non-factors. That won't change unless one of the Big Four here suffer an injury and The reason is that coach Doc Rivers is not crazy enough to play Kevin Garnett or Murphy at center for long stretches.
Therefore, Nenad Krstic is going to play more minutes than the more talented Green and Murphy. His 12.2 points and 4.8 rebounds in 25.5 minutes with no blocks or steals upside is a reasonable expectation until Shaq gets back.
Is Rajon Rondo getting worn down? Maybe. In seven games since the All-Star break, Rondo is playing 39.2 minutes per night and the offense runs through him in every one of those minutes. Still, owners should not really be concerned. The Celtics are battling for home-court throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs and Rondo is just 25-years-old. No reason to worry.
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<BIG>CHARLOTTE</BIG>
PG D.J. Augustin
SG Gerald Henderson
SF Dominic McGuire
PF Boris Diaw
C Kwame Brown
Tyrus Thomas (knee) will make his return Wednesday. Although coach Paul Silas said that Boris Diaw could be removed from the starting lineup, it's hard to really see that happening. Diaw showed his upside Monday night and Thomas fits perfectly as an energy guy with the second unit.
I expect Thomas to ramp up to 25-27 minutes off the bench quickly, making him well worth an add. As I mentioned in Friday's Dose, Thomas blocks 2.7 shots per 36 minutes this season. With Gerald Wallace gone and Kwame Brown struggling, there is plenty of room in the rotation for Tyrus. As coach Paul Silas said: "He's very talented and that's what we need. We need talent."
Stephen Jackson (hamstring) is not going to shut it down no matter what the Bobcats say. He is simply too tough and proud. Look for a full complement of minutes out of Captain Jack Wednesday, sending Dominic McGuire's unfriendly fantasy game back to the bench.
Gerald Henderson is locked in to 32-24 minutes nightly as a building block of the future. His inability to make treys is a real downer, but he is an ideal bottom of roster guy in fantasy. You know he is going to get minutes and shots.
Even though Joel Przybilla started the second half two games ago, Kwame Brown is still the starter. But he just is not playing well enough to be used. In his last 10 games: Brown is averaging 6.0 points, 6.2 rebounds and 0.5 blocks in 25.0 minutes.
Editor's Note: For weekly projections, daily pickup advice, exclusive columns and much more, check out Rotoworld's Season Pass!
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<BIG>CHICAGO</BIG>
PG Derrick Rose
SG Keith Bogans
SF Luol Deng
PF Carlos Boozer
C Joakim Noah
The Bulls wisely decided against a major trade that would have brought in an upgrade at shooting guard -- they are good enough to win it all as constructed. Therefore, this rotation is locked in.
The "Big Four" are all going to play 35+ minutes nightly and the shooting guard spot will be a three-headed monster/fantasy wasteland. Note that Joakim Noah is still working his way back into form. In eight games since returning from that broken thumb: 9.1 points, 11.5 rebounds, 1.1 blocks. Those numbers are sure to rise.
<BIG>DETROIT</BIG>
PG Rodney Stuckey
SG Ben Gordon
SF Tayshaun Prince
PF Chris Wilcox
C Greg Monroe
The failed mutiny on coach John Kuester has proven to be huge for Rodney Stuckey and Greg Monroe. Now that Tracy McGrady has been banished to the doghouse with no sign of return, Stuckey is playing at a level we have not seen out of him. Over his last five games, Stuckey is averaging 20.8 points, 6.8 assists, 5.4 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game. Now looking like the Pistons' point guard of the future, he's locked into 36-38 minutes nightly while McGrady is probably done in Detroit -- this season and beyond.
Ben Wallace (personal) is coming back and will likely start over Chris Wilcox, but Greg Monroe's minutes won't be affected. The rookie wisely stayed above the fray in the anti-Kuester campaign and is proving to be a fantasy monster. Over the last 10 games, Monroe is averaging 9.0 rebounds, 1.1 blocks and 1.1 steals. The 13.6 points on 59.2 percent shooting are just a bonus.
The Pistons' treatment of Austin Daye is frustrating, but somewhat understandable. Tayshaun Prince has played well enough and has done enough in his career to be locked into the starting gig and 30-plus minutes anytime he is healthy. Owners can simply move on from Daye and add Prince as a low-end option.
<BIG>INDIANA</BIG>
PG Darren Collison
SG Brandon Rush
SF Danny Granger
PF Josh McRoberts
C Roy Hibbert
A few weeks back when I was recommending not to add Paul George, I noted that I didn't think the rookie would start even if Mike Dunleavy got hurt. A week later, Dunleavy did get hurt. Voo Doo powers.
Anyway, Brandon Rush has started seven games but has not attempted more than nine shots in any of those games. The offense now runs through Roy Hibbert, not the wings like it did under Jim O'Brien. So we can comfortably ignore the timeshare that is George/Rush.
The Tyler Hansbrough vs. Josh McRoberts battle is more interesting. Hansbrough's per-36 minute numbers are pretty striking: 17.3 points, 9.1 rebounds. The problem, however, is twofold. Hansbrough only plays 24-26 minutes per game as a reserve and he does not block, steal, pass or shoot a good percentage. Leave both him and McBob alone.
Perhaps it was not Jim O'Brien that was holding Darren Collison back after all. Maybe he just is not that good. Over his last 10 games, Collison is averaging just 10.5 points and 4.4 assists while shooting 36.4 percent from the field. His playing time is getting slashed because he is not performing. I'd expect a small uptick over the final month, but nothing great.
<BIG>MIAMI</BIG>
PG Mario Chalmers
SG Dwyane Wade
SF LeBron James
PF Chris Bosh
C Erick Dampier
www.miamiheat.ws
Much like an unaware fantasy owner, the Heat are finding out that the acquisition of Mike Bibby is not all that exciting. As one of the worst defenders in the league, coaches have a hard time using him. And he can no longer beat anyone off the dribble. Bibby may eventually start over Mario Chalmers and push for 25 minutes, but they will be empty. Move on.
<BIG>MILWAUKEE</BIG>
PG Brandon Jennings
SG John Salmons
SF Carlos Delfino
PF Jon Brockman
C Larry Sanders
Injuries to both Andrew Bogut (ribcage) and Ersan Ilysaova (concussion) have turned this front line into a mess. While Bogut will play Tuesday, Ilyasova's head injury is showing signs of being serious. Enter Luc Richard Mbah a Moute.
Mbah a Moute is expected to start the Bucks' next game at power forward and could very well hold the job the rest of the year. As a starter this year, the defensive specialist is averaging just 6.2 points, 5.7 assists and 1.0 steals. But over the last five games, Mbah a Moute is at 10.4 points, 5.6 rebounds and 1.8 steals. For extreme deep leaguers in search of guys that will play 30-plus minutes, Mbah a Moute is worth an add.
Larry Sanders had just four blocks in the three games Andrew Bogut has missed. Dump him.
Meanwhile, the wing situation is gaining more clarity. Corey Maggette was playing way behind Carlos Delfino and Chris Douglas-Roberts even before his latest knee tweak. Lock in Delfino and John Salmons to 30-plus minutes the rest of the way.
<BIG>NEW JERSEY</BIG>
PG Deron Williams
SG Sasha Vujacic
SF Damion James
PF Kris Humphries
C Brook Lopez
Coach Avery Johnson tried Sasha Vujacic as his starting shooting guard for a couple games. Predictably, it was a failed experiment. Despite Saturday's 26-point outburst when Anthony Morrow (concussion) was out, Vujacic is just not a a legit NBA starter. When Morrow is healthy, he will start and play about 31-33 minutes. Use his 13.6 points and 2.2 3-pointers made per game from February as an expectation.
The Deron Williams' wrist situation is concerning, but he feels an obligation to play out the season. After all, the Nets gave up their franchise for him. So we can consider this wife pregnancy situation a good thing. Williams will fulfill his family obligations while resting his wrists. Then, he will come back strong. It's a win-win. In the meantime, Jordan Farmar projects to play 35 minutes as a top-end fantasy player.
With Derrick Favors gone, Kris Humphries, is a beast. In 32 starts this year, Hump is averaging 9.6 points, 11.1 rebounds and 1.2 blocks on 50.6 percent shooting. Look for his points to rise with Williams at the controls.
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<BIG>NEW YORK</BIG>
PG Toney Douglas
SG Landry Fields
SF Carmelo Anthony
PF Amare Stoudemire
C Jared Jeffries
Coach Mike D'Antoni has announced that Jared Jeffries will be his starting center even when Ronny Turiaf (knee) returns Yawn. In three starts for the Knicks, Jeffries has played 25.1 minutes per game but somehow averaged 0.3 points. Is that even possible?
Meanwhile, Chauncey Billups' (thigh) absence should be looked at as a good thing. For a player as old as him, a minor muscle injury like this serves as a break. He should be locked and loaded for a big final push.
Landry Fields has adjusted to the trade just fine. He is averaging 31.9 minutes per game over his last five, but most nights he will push for 34. The rookie's status has held as a low-end three-point specialist.
<BIG>ORLANDO</BIG>
PG Jameer Nelson
SG Jason Richardson
SF Hedo Turkoglu
PF Ryan Anderson
C Brandon Bass
Dwight Howard was suspended Monday. He will be back out there Wednesday, returning Ryan Anderson to his bench role.
Anderson is what he is at this point -- he will play 22-24 minutes off the bench and average two treys per game. Anything else you get is a bonus.
The rest of this rotation is set. If you have seen Gilbert Arenas hobble around on the court, you know he is no real threat to Jameer Nelson.
<BIG>PHILADELPHIA</BIG>
PG Jrue Holiday
SG Jodie Meeks
SF Andre Iguodala
PF Elton Brand
C Spencer Hawes
As the Sixers continue to get off to slow starts almost nightly, they are relying more and more on their NBA-best bench. After hovering around 26 minutes all season Thaddeus Young is playing 32.6 minutes a night over the last three games. He is guaranteed at least 26 minutes nightly and is well worth owning in almost all formats.
Lou Williams' role is not quite as secure. When Jodie Meeks gets hot, coach Doug Collins likes to ride the Kentucky product as the better defensive player. And Evan Turner's role is even less secure. Yes, the No. 2 overall pick is playing better, but his jump shot remains abysmal. He will play 16 minutes and struggle much more than he will play 30 minutes.
I'd rank these bench options Young>>Williams>>>Turner.
<BIG>TORONTO</BIG>
PG Jose Calderon
SG DeMar DeRozan
SF James Johnson
PF Amir Johnson
C Andrea Bargnani
The power forward spot here keeps getting more and more interesting. Amir Johnson has surprisingly been able to combine his enormous upside with consistency, making him one of the more valuable players in fantasy over the last couple months. Meanwhile rookie Ed Davis is proving to be a gem. Check out these per-36 minute stats on Davis: 10.8 points, 10.9 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, 61.2 percent shooting. And Reggie Evans (foot) seems to be close.
So what gives? Well, at this point, Johnson can't lose his starting gig. He is just playing too well. And as a building block for the Raptors' future, Davis must get minutes. Evans is one of the more beloved guys in every locker room and will get some time too. Look for 29-31 minutes out of Johnson, 23-26 minutes for Davis and eventually 18-20 from Evans.
James Johnson is a nice little story, but relying on him is a desperate move. Johnson will struggle for minutes often thanks to Jerryd Bayless/Leandro Barbosa/Sonny Weems and the ex-Bull just is not a scorer. His current block rate (10 in last six games) is unsustainable.
<BIG>WASHINGTON</BIG>
PG John Wall
SG Nick Young
SF Maurice Evans
PF Andray Blatche
C JaVale McGee
At some point, Rashard Lewis has to just give it up. His knee is simply too sore and while it's admirable that he wants to keep playing for a 16-46 team, it does not make much sense. Look for him to shut it down soon. Theoretically, that would open up time for Josh Howard. But he continues to struggle with his knee along with hamstring woes, so this small forward spot is a fantasy wasteland. It's just not worth the headache.
With those early-season knee problems behind him, John Wall is racking up huge minutes. Over the last 10 games, Wall is averaging 19.5 points, 8.5 assists while playing 39.0 minutes. However, his lack of treys and awful field-goal percentage makes me wary. I think Wall will be overvalued in drafts next year.
